PDI-P, Golkar have chance to form coalition

Ridwan Max Sijabat, Writer staff, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
Ridwan@thejakartapost.com

The large number of political parties, and the fragmentation of around 147 million eligible voters, have indicated that no party will win a simple majority in the legislative election scheduled for April 5. But several major parties are expected to win a sizable vote that will force them to form an alliance or coalition, so that they can nominate strong presidential and vice presidential candidates in order to win 50 percent of the vote- plus one in the first round of the presidential election on July 5.

The ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Golkar Party, the United Development Party (PPP), National Awakening Party (PKB), National Mandate Party (PAN) and several newcomers, including the Democratic Party and Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), have stepped up their campaigns to win as many votes as possible in the legislative election.

The PDI-P and Golkar have targeted to win 25 percent to 30 percent of seats in the legislature, a little more than what gave them their simple victory in the 1999 election, while the other parties aim to win 3 percent to 17 percent of seats.

The legislative election has a strong link with the presidential election because it will be difficult for a president to rule unless the person is supported by a majority of the legislature (DPR). This is why party leaders have gone all out to win as many seats as possible in the DPR.

The political configuration resulting from the legislative election will pave the way for the PDI-P and Golkar to form a strong coalition. President Megawati Soekarnoputri, fighting for a second term in office, would find it difficult to form a pairing with former president Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid, who will be nominated by the PKB and supported by the largest Muslim organization, Nahdlatul Ulama, or with Amien Rais of PAN, supported by Muhammadiyah.

Megawati will face a strong rival for the presidency if the PKB makes a political maneuver to support former top security minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who will be nominated by the Democratic Party.

Golkar, which is expected to officially nominate party chairman Akbar Tandjung, would gain political advantage in a coalition with the PDI-P.

These two nationalist parties are intensifying their political deals as a precursor to forming a coalition after the legislative election.

Despite her weaknesses, Megawati faces fewer problems than other presidential candidates in winning the first-ever direct presidential election. Besides having the full support of the PDI-P, Megawati apparently has the backing of both the Indonesian Military (TNI) and the National Police, and has received an endorsement from the wider world, especially the United States, to win the presidential election for a second term.

Before hundreds of thousands of PDI-P supporters in Lampung and North Sulawesi last week, Megawati insisted that she wanted to have a politician with a good track record as her running mate in the presidential election and was determined to win majority support in the first round.

Elite figures from both the PDI-P and Golkar have, for a long time, been paving the way to forming a coalition to win the presidential election, but the lobbying has still been on an informal level, pending the legislative election results. Both Taufik Kiemas, Megawati's husband and an influential leader within the PDI-P, and Akbar, a strong presidential candidate from Golkar, have hinted at a possible coalition, although this has sparked strong protest and opposition from both the parties, and the move is seen as premature.

Golkar, which also expects to win a sizable vote in the legislative election, will not respond immediately to the offer of a possible coalition with the PDI-P for, besides waiting for the election results, the party still has to select its presidential candidate through a convention, to be held after the legislative election.

With his recent acquittal from corruption by the Supreme Court, Akbar, with the support by most party chapters, has a great chance to win the presidential convention. However, will Akbar and Golkar accept it if the PDI-P invites him to be a running mate for Megawati to contend the presidential election?

Taking into consideration all factors, including the track records of the two parties and their presidential candidates, Golkar, given its poor reputation during the New Order era under Soeharto, will have little chance to fight for the top position. Golkar will likely have to settle for a nomination to the nation's second position.

The other main consideration for Golkar and the PDI-P in forming a strong coalition is that the two parties will not wish to have to go through to the second round of the presidential election on Sept. 5, which would leave the country in a long period of political uncertainty.

It would certainly be more beneficial, both politically and economically, if the nation had a president and vice president supported by a majority of the electorate in the first-round election in early July.